My prediction: PC minority

Here are some election predictions. I thought I had submitted my election predictions to the CalgaryGrit/Daveberta election pool, but I had not, so most of these are items from their pool.

Why do I anticipate the PCs winning? They were able to salvage their ship going into the last week, whereas the Wildrose campaign imploded. I subscribe to the theory that opposition parties do not ‘win’ elections; governments lose them, and the ‘bozo eruptions’ in the last week of the campaign will have many average Albertans thinking the Wildrose are not ready for prime time yet. The last-minute reversal of standings in the polls corroborate that. Moreover, close races tend to favour incumbency.

The drama will not stop at this election, though. A minority government will be incredibly unstable, and I think it is within the realm of possibility that the NDP and Liberals could cooperate with the Wildrose, if the government lost the confidence of the house. Then there is the issue of leadership: Alison Redford’s leadership has been called into question during the campaign, and she will have to retain the confidence of her party. Even Smith, who supposedly had the election in the bag, could come under scrutiny for a last-minute collapse in the campaign.

All of that being said, I am not very confident in this prediction–I am only more confident in this one over the other scenarios I have envisaged. The Wildrose could win. There could be a majority government. However, regardless of the outcome, Alberta politics will continue to be much more exciting than anything we have seen in the last two decades.

Overall outcome: PC minority, with a north-south split between the PCs and Wildrose and the PCs facing decimation in rural central/south Alberta.

PC: 43

Wildrose: 38

NDP: 3

Liberal: 3

Alison Redford: Holds Calgary-Elbow, but her biggest fight yet will be her leadership review, which she may not survive (unless I’m wrong about all of this and the PCs lose).

Raj Sherman: Loses Edmonton-Meadowlark; will step down as Liberal leader shortly after the election.

Ted Morton: Loses Foothills-Rockyview.

Edmonton-Glenora: Heather Klimchuck will hold for the PCs.

Best PC showing: Ray Danyluk in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills.

Best Alberta Party showing: Michael Walters in Edmonton-Rutherford with 15 percent of the vote.

Neither Allan Hunsperger nor Ron Leech will win their seats.

The Wildrose will win one senate seat (likely Vitor Marciano).


About jbsantos
Polling, politics, PR and outdoor pursuits.

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