All Leger polls during the election campaign
April 18, 2012 Leave a comment
The post-debate polls are out, and both Return on Insight and Leger are showing that there have been some shifts. Both are showing that the race has gotten tighter in the two major cities, which means the Tories are catching up in Calgary and the Wildrose is catching up in Edmonton. There is more than enough commentary on polls, but, unless you are watching TV, you rarely see charts, which really show just how dramatic this race has been. Since I actually do this in my spare time so I know what the current numbers stand, I figured I would post them for everyone’s enjoyment.
The caveat is that these polls are pre-Hunsperger and pre-Leech, so there is a high likelihood that the numbers have shifted since them, given the brouhaha over those incidents in mainstream and social media.
The Wildrose have recovered in both Edmonton and outside of the two major cities. Regional subsamples have a higher margin of error, so caution should be approached when evaluating those numbers. Still, the jump is high enough that a margin of error would only change the degree and not direction of the shift. The PCs, on the other hand, have recovered in Calgary, while the Wildrose numbers have been remarkably consistent, resulting in both of them being in a dead heat.
What is also interesting is where the movement is coming from. I wrote earlier that Liberal and even New Democrat voters might cast a strategic vote for the PCs to stop the Wildrose, and we see evidence of that in Calgary, with the PCs being up 11 points and the centre/left vote collapsing by 10 points between both the Liberals and the NDP. The story is a little different in Edmonton where both the Wildrose and the PCs are up, and both the NDP and Liberals are down. It is curious that the PC and Liberal shifts are equal and in opposite directions, as are the Wildrose and NDP shifts. As it is impossible to tell individual level shifts over the course of the campaign, it would be dangerous to suggest that there is vote trading going on between certain parties, and it is possible that several shifts have happened for a variety of reasons, which has led to this shift on the aggregate level.
The biggest problem for the Wildrose, in the context of the events that happened after this poll, is that they may have peaked too soon. The Wildrose’s detractors smiled in delight as the wheels fell off the Wildrose bus this week, on account of Hunsperger and Leech’s comments. I can only imagine the consternation of the strategists in the Wildrose war room, who are re-living the nightmares of Reform Campaign Past, complete with randomly appearing spectres of unshackled and colourful candidates who have not yet learned to couch their language.
*A note on why I use Leger’s polls: Leger has published weekly updates on the horse race numbers, which is why I use their numbers. Once Abacus releases their latest numbers I plot both sets on charts.